Australia’s Net Migration Continues to Ease as Debate Shifts Beyond Numbers
Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) has continued to decline from its post-pandemic peak, signalling a gradual easing in population inflows as the national migration debate increasingly shifts from volume to broader social and economic values.
According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, NOM fell to just over 305,000 in the most recent financial year. This represents a decline of 6,000 people compared with the year to March, and a reduction of approximately 250,000 from the record high reached in September 2023.
While migration levels are trending downward, the pace of decline is slowing. The latest figure came in slightly below Treasury’s forecast of 310,000 for 2024–25, published on Wednesday. However, former Department of Immigration secretary Abul Rizvi said it now appears unlikely that NOM will fall to the government’s longer-term projections of 260,000 in the current financial year or 225,000 by 2026–27.
Mr Rizvi identified two key factors constraining the decline in migration.
First, following tighter student visa settings between mid-2023 and mid-2025, the government announced higher migration planning levels for 2026. This policy shift prompted a surge in offshore university applications during September and October.
Second, Australia’s strong labour market, particularly in comparison with New Zealand, has continued to attract overseas workers, keeping arrival numbers elevated.
The post-pandemic rebound in migration has remained politically sensitive. Right-leaning commentators and politicians have focused on the sharp increase in NOM following the reopening of international borders, after migration briefly turned negative during COVID-era travel restrictions.
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